Late in close basketball games, scoring speeds up: fouls send teams to the line and the clock stops. The model was trained on every NBA and NCAA men’s game of two seasons and prices how many points are still to come from the score, the clock, the margin, the pace and the team fouls. Full-game lines only. Overtime counts.
Never: blowouts (13+ points; 16+ for game totals), NBA spreads, the trailing team’s spread, overtime.
Each play is graded once, after the final, at the line and price its book showed when the card first said TAKE IT: WIN / LOSS / PUSH and the units it would have made. Totals, team totals and spreads include overtime.
Win % of the model’s picks on games it never trained on (trained on 2023-24 and 2024-25), at the line the rule allows, with the same game counted at each minute it qualified. The backtest assumes the line was there to take. Past results don’t guarantee future ones.